Lately there have been many talks about possible “security guarantees” for Ukraine. It’s time to cut through the noise and lay out what real assurances could look like.

1. No more illusions about russian “guarantees.”

History has shown one thing beyond doubt: russia’s promises are worthless. From the Budapest Memorandum to countless ceasefires, Moscow has broken every pledge the moment it suited them. Trusting russian “guarantees” is not diplomacy – it is self-delusion.

2. Foreign troops on the ground

Some suggest U.S. or European “peacekeepers” in Ukraine. The hard truths:

* U.S. boots on the ground are politically impossible – neither party supports it.

* Credible deterrence would require 100,000+ troops – far more than Europe could muster.

* In the event of a direct russian attack, foreign troops might withdraw rather than fight a nuclear power.

* A few thousand casualties could shatter European political will and force retreat, leaving Ukraine more vulnerable.

In short, symbolic deployments are dangerous illusions. Only a massive, long-term NATO-level commitment would work – and that’s not realistic today.

3. Arming Ukraine – the only reliable guarantee.

The most credible guarantee is a fully armed Ukraine. Not emergency trickles of aid, but long-term, institutionalized rearmament, similar to Israel’s multi-year U.S. aid packages. That means:

* Guaranteed access to modern air defenses, jets, long-range missiles, and ammunition.

* Automatic funding mechanisms, not ad hoc aid votes.

* A permanent defense-industrial partnership with the West.

This also requires building Ukraine’s own defense base. Once a major supplier in the USSR, Ukraine has now scaled up domestic production of drones, missiles, armored vehicles, and more. Sustained investment will make Ukraine militarily self-reliant.

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